The Rule Book

Gerry came up with the following rules for the bet/challenge. I think there is still some room for adjustment here if anyone comes up with another idea. For now though, this is how it will work:

1. The aim of this bet is to complete a marathon, but given 23 months' notice we expect people to run it. No walkers. So we expect a time of under 6 hours.

2. Everyone pays €5 per week to a bank account. This money is used for quarterly prizes of €100 each for 6 quarters and the rest (about €1800-1900) will go to the grand prize winners.

3. Everyone will have to complete a race in April '09 (race to be decided) either a 10k or a half marathon. There are ones in Vancouver and Dublin at this time. The finish time of this race will be used to predict a marathon time.

4. Half the grand prize will be split evenly between anyone who completes the final marathon in under their predicted time + 5%

5. The person with the best percentage improvemet on their predicted time will get another 30% of the grand prize, the next best will get 15% and the next 5%.

6. If only one person gets under predicted time + 5% then they take the lot.

7. If no one completes the martahon in their predicted time +5% then the money stays in the account and we pick a new race in 2010.

8. Quarterly prizes will be given for a different competition each time. An example might be that everyone run 5k as fast as possible on March 1st and again on March 31st. The person with the best percentage improvement gets the prize.

9. We all have to be honest about this and not play to win the cash but play to win the marathon.

Here's an example of how the money and prizes get divided:

5 people over 100 weeks put in €5 a week. This gives us a jackpot of €2500. After 6 quarterly prizes of €100 each, we are left with a grand prize of €1900.

Predicted times are
A: 3 hours 50 (230 minutes + 5% = 241.5 minutes)
B: 5 hours (300 minutes + 5% =315 minutes)
C: 4 hours 30 (270 minutes + 5% = 283.5 minutes)
D: 4 hours (240 minutes + 5% = 252 minutes)
E: 4 hours 45 (285 minutes + 5% = 299.25 minutes)

They finish in
Finish Predicted + 5% Difference Percentage Difference
A 220 241.5 -21.50 -9%
B 320 315 +5.00 +2%
C 280 283.5 -3.50 -1%
D 220 252 -32.00 -13%
E 291 299.25 -8.25 -3%

So B goes home with nothing and the other 4 split half the prize so they all get €237.50

D came in 1st place so gets another €570 (30%)
A came in next so gets another €285 (15%)
E came third so gets an extra €95 (5%)